Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social
The best thinking on existential threats since 1945. Nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. We set the Doomsday Clock. thebulletin.org
Just 50 years after the Roman Empire grew to its largest size, a mysterious and crippling pandemic known as the Antonine plague brought it to its knees.
Research on climate change and other areas is shedding light on how the plague emerged to pack such a devastating punch ⬇️
A ‘plague’ comes before the fall: lessons from Roman history
Just 50 years after the Roman Empire grew to its largest size, a mysterious and crippling pandemic known as the Antonine plague brought it to its knees. Research on climate change and in other areas i...
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In less than seven years, Chinese physicists went from launching a new hydrogen bomb research program to successfully detonating a full-yield 3.3 megaton H-bomb.
"The short march to China’s hydrogen bomb," a new feature by Hui Zhang:
The short march to China’s hydrogen bomb
It took the US seven years, it took Britain five... China did it in two. How did they get from atomic bombs to hydrogen bombs so fast?
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"Today, fear is palpable as Germans are debating a question that sounds like it was taken right from the early Cold War playbooks: What if the United States abandons Europe in face of a Russian aggression?"
"Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different," by Ulrich Kühn:
Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different.
Germany relies on extended US nuclear deterrence for its security. Now, the prospect of Trump's re-election could change this strategy.
thebulletin.org"As it stands, RECA is currently set to expire in June of this year. If this happens, entire communities will lose crucial health coverage and cancer screenings, and many will never get the chance to apply for compensation."
The US Senate passed a bill to expand compensation for radiation victims.
Will the House agree?
Read the new article from Allen Hester:
Senate passes bill to expand compensation for radiation victims. Will the House agree?
Despite the Senate’s approval of a bill to broaden and prolong the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act, the fight for justice isn't over.
thebulletin.org"Blaming the climate for water scarcity, land degradation, and rural poverty conveniently deflects scrutiny from how governments pursue exclusionary policies that favor urban constituencies, privilege access to water and land for well-connected agro-businesses, and underinvest in rural communities."
Blaming the climate is a convenient, and increasingly common, excuse for governments to distract from their own failures and corruption.
"In Sudan, 'climate wars' are useful scapegoats for bad leaders," by Harry Verhoeven.
In Sudan, “climate wars” are useful scapegoats for bad leaders
By | Photo by Yiannis Mantas via Adobe. Sudan is widely considered one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. It features consistently near the
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The stories of scientists who tried to change nuclear weapons policy for the better—and how some succeeded.
"Not just Oppenheimer," by Frank von Hippel ⬇️
Not just Oppenheimer: How other scientists tried to change nuclear weapons policy for the better
With Oppenheimer (the movie) poised to receive many Academy Awards tonight, let’s remember the many other scientists who tried to change nuclear weapons policy for the better.
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Moscow says it will not resume nuclear testing, and so does Washington.
But despite what officials say, there is some evidence that could suggest otherwise.
Get started with the Bulletin's March premium magazine with this introduction from @francoisdm.bsky.social:
Introduction: Nuclear testing in the 21st century—legacies, tensions, and risks
Moscow and Washington say they won't resume nuclear testing. But despite what officials say, some evidence could suggest otherwise.
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There's been a resurgence of interest in naturally produced hydrogen as a clean fuel, nicknamed “gold hydrogen.”
"While we can all hope to strike it rich and find gold hydrogen," writes Eric McFarland, "that’s not a solid foundation for climate action."
Golden hydrogen—or fool’s gold?
It’s nice to think there are vast quantities of naturally-occurring hydrogen that could solve the world’s energy problems, but it’s unlikely.
thebulletin.org“They must understand that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” Putin said today of any deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine. “All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?”
Putin threatens again: An updated timeline of commentary on potential nuclear escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Read more from Susan D’Agostino and François Diaz-Maurin:
Putin threatens again: An updated timeline of commentary on potential nuclear escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war
Here’s a still-unfolding, existential timeline on whether world leaders and experts think Putin will start a nuclear war in Ukraine.
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The Bulletin's Independent Task Force on Research with Pandemic Risks has released a new report on the benefits and risks of research that could source a large outbreak, or even a pandemic.
Read "A Framework For Tomorrow’s Pathogen Research" here: thebulletin.org/pathogens-pr...
"Just a few weeks after his stint as a firefighter ended, he learned that half of the hotel he had stayed in had burned down in yet another wildfire."
"Climate change brings more work, more risk for wildfire workers," by Bulletin editorial fellow @smallthoughts.bsky.social ⬇️
Climate change brings more work, more risk for wildfire workers
Longer fire seasons are upending the systems that federal and state agencies use to manage and contain wildland fires.
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On February 28, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET. the Independent Task Force on Research with Pathogen Risk will release its final report at the United Nations headquarters, offering recommendations on making research with pandemic risks more safe, secure, and responsible.
Learn more below:
New report to offer a responsible path forward for research with pandemic risks
A new report from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ independent Task Force on Research with Pandemic Risks will discuss the benefits
thebulletin.org"While the historical industry attacks on the NRC put self-interest above public safety, the agency, after its accommodating responses, didn’t come out looking good, either," writes former commissioner of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Victor Gilinsky ⬇️
Congress takes aim at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission: ‘It’s déjà vu all over again’
There are a lot of things wrong with the NRC but being too aggressive on safety is not one of them.
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The United States Congress recently decided not to expand the 1990 Radiation Exposure Compensation Act, despite unusual bipartisan support.
Robert Alvarez looks back at the harmful effects of the US nuclear program, and how the government addressed them—or didn't.
The fallout never ended
As efforts to compensate victims of US nuclear weapons tests continue, a former Senate staffer and expert on the US nuclear program looks back at their harmful effects, and how the government addressed them—or didn't.
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"The expanding scope of biological threats."
Read the biosecurity spotlight from the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement: bit.ly/3OfFz1a
"AI and other disruptive technologies to watch."
Read the disruptive technologies spotlight from the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement: bit.ly/3OmPCl4
"The mixed outlook for climate action."
Read the climate change spotlight from the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement: bit.ly/3ShpfOl
"An undiminished nuclear threat and a new arms race."
Read the nuclear spotlight from the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement: bit.ly/3HDILzT
"The Clock can move away from midnight. As we wrote last year, 'In this time of unprecedented global danger, concerted action is required, and every second counts.' That is just as true today."
Read the 2024 Doomsday Clock statement: bit.ly/3tWroHo
Read the issue spotlights in the thread below.
The PDF of the full Doomsday Clock statement from the Science and Security Board can be accessed here:
thebulletin.org/wp-content/u...
Today, the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board once again sets the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight.
Humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger.
Read the full statement: bit.ly/3tWroHo
This year's Doomsday Clock announcement is today at 10am EST / 15:00 GMT.
Watch the livestream on our website, YouTube, or Facebook to hear what the Bulletin's Science and Security Board has to say about the global state of existential risk.
Learn more⬇️
The best ways to influence your elected officials, from the point-of-view of an elected official.
California Congressman Ted Lieu on what you can do about existential threats, from nuclear issues to climate change ⬇️
Interview: California Congressman Ted Lieu on what you can do about existential threats
The best ways to influence your elected officials, from the point-of-view of an elected official.
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"The arc of the physical universe is short, and it bends toward heat. And if we don’t win soon, we won’t win."
Environmentalist Bill McKibben explains what individuals can do to win the climate fight, interviewed by @jessimckenzi.bsky.social ⬇️
Bill McKibben explains what individuals can do to win the climate fight. Together.
Forty years from now, humans will run the planet on sun and wind, because they're such darn cheap energy sources. But if it takes us anything like 40 years to get there, then it’ll be a broken plane...
thebulletin.org"[W]hat I think is so powerful about the name 'Encode Justice' is that it captures the sense that our organization’s goal is not about stopping all technology [...] Instead, we are trying to re-imagine what we do have and build justice into the frameworks of these systems from the very beginning."
An interview with Sneha Revanur, “the Greta Thunberg of AI,” by Bulletin executive editor Dan Drollette, Jr. ⬇️
Interview with Sneha Revanur, “the Greta Thunberg of AI”
Whatever kind of AI is out there today is what teenagers and young college students are going to inherit tomorrow. Which is why 900 of them came together in "Encode Justice."
thebulletin.orgIn preparation for the Doomsday Clock announcement, this premium magazine issue is available to read to all.
This year's Doomsday Clock announcement is on January 23.
This issue of the Bulletin’s magazine is devoted to providing some answers to a common question: what can I do to turn back the Clock?
Read the intro to the January magazine by Dan Drollette Jr.:
Introduction: What you can do to turn back the hands of the Doomsday Clock
Those who believe that they can succeed are usually the ones who do.
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There is "an urgency for countries to agree on common rules about the development, deployment, and use of emerging military tech in war."
"AI in war: Can advanced military technologies be tamed before it’s too late?" by Steven Feldstein ⬇️
AI in war: Can advanced military technologies be tamed before it’s too late?
There is an urgency for countries to agree on common rules about the development, deployment, and use of emerging military tech in war.
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This year's Doomsday Clock announcement will be on January 23.
Tune in to hear what internationally recognized experts have to say about the global state of existential risks.
Joining the conversations with the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board will be science educator: Bill Nye!
Bill Nye joins the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement
Nuclear weapons, climate change, disruptive technologies – there's a lot of risk out there right now. But what's
thebulletin.org
This year's #DoomsdayClock announcement will be on January 23.
Tune in to hear what internationally recognized experts have to say about the global state of existential risks.
Joining the conversations with the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board will be science educator: Bill Nye!
Bill Nye joins the 2024 Doomsday Clock announcement
Nuclear weapons, climate change, disruptive technologies – there's a lot of risk out there right now. But what's
thebulletin.org
The Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant—which would reprocess spent fuel from Japanese nuclear power plants—is over 25 years behind schedule.
There are reasons to wonder whether the plant will ever operate.
"Rokkasho redux: Japan’s never-ending reprocessing saga," by Tatsujiro Suzuki ⬇️
Rokkasho redux: Japan's never-ending reprocessing saga
The Rokkasho reprocessing plant—which would reprocess spent fuel from Japanese nuclear power plants, separating plutonium for use as reactor fuel—is already more than 25 years behind schedule. Th...
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Due to overwhelming visa restrictions, critical perspectives from countries most affected by nuclear weapons aren't reaching global forums meant to address them.
"How passport privilege undermines the nuclear ban treaty," by Olamide Samuel ⬇️
How passport privilege undermines the nuclear ban treaty
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has been adopted largely by states in the Global South. But economic inequality and overwhelming US and European visa restrictions have kept critical n...
thebulletin.org"So this is not to say that eliminating methane emissions is bad, because it does help. But what’s really damaging is fooling yourself into thinking that eliminating methane has as big an impact as eliminating carbon dioxide."
“Mass delusion and wishful thinking”: Why everything you think you know about methane is probably wrong.
Bulletin editor @jessimckenzi.bsky.social interviewed climate expert and University of Oxford physics professor Raymond Pierrehumbert ⬇️
'Mass delusion and wishful thinking': Why everything you think you know about methane is probably wr...
What’s really damaging is fooling yourself into thinking that eliminating methane has as big an impact as eliminating carbon dioxide.
thebulletin.org"One hopes that it will not take another Cuban Missile Crisis for the countries deploying AI to establish open lines of communication and avoid escalation driven by new technology."
"Costly signaling: How highlighting intent can help governments avoid dangerous AI miscalculations," by Owen J. Daniels and Andrew Imbrie.
Read below ⬇️
Costly signaling: How highlighting intent can help governments avoid dangerous AI miscalculations
To make their intentions clearer, governments can use costly signaling—a policy tool —to communicate about AI and decode others’ intentions.
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"The climate crisis is real, but nuclear energy will continue to be the most expensive and slowest option to reach net zero emissions, no matter how you cook the numbers."
"COP 28 and the nuclear energy numbers racket," by Sharon Squassoni ⬇️
COP 28 and the nuclear energy numbers racket
Twenty-two countries called for a tripling of nuclear energy by 2050 at the COP-28 climate meeting in Dubai. This article explains, with facts and figures, why nuclear energy will continue to be the m...
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"This is the first time in Italy—and, as far as I am aware, in Europe—that a company has been sued not for polluting the waters, but for draining them."
"Italian utility in hot water for draining a picturesque lake to send water to Rome," by Gabriele Di Donfrancesco ⬇️
Italian utility in hot water for draining a picturesque lake to send water to Rome
The legal battle the local community is waging against Acea could set an important new environmental precedent in the European Union.
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A group of independent global leaders, The Elders, has put forward a four-part plan as a practical agenda to minimize the nuclear threat.
Read "A strong multilateral system must live up to commitments on nuclear disarmament," by Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico ⬇️
A strong multilateral system must live up to commitments on nuclear disarmament
The Elders group has has put forward a four-part plan as a practical agenda to minimize the nuclear threat. Achieving this agenda would be far from sufficient, but it would move the world closer to th...
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At COP28, Vanuatu and Tuvalu lead the call for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to address the climate crisis.
Read the new article by Alex Rafalowicz:
At COP28, Vanuatu and Tuvalu lead the call for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to address cli...
If global leaders can’t agree on a course of action to phase out fossil fuels, countries should do so independently by signing on to a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
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AI’s integration into wargames can influence leadership decisions and future wars, highlighting the need for ethical governance.
"Wargames and AI: A dangerous mix that needs ethical oversight," by Ivanka Barzashka of King’s College London.
Wargames and AI: A dangerous mix that needs ethical oversight
AI’s integration into wargames can influence leadership decisions, highlighting the urgent need for ethical governance and accountability.
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How may artificial intelligence alter the conduct of war? Do soldiers trust it?
"AI and the future of warfare: The troubling evidence from the US military" by Paul Lushenko, lieutenant colonel in the US army and director of special operations and faculty instructor in the US Army War College.
AI and the future of warfare: The troubling evidence from the US military
US military officers can approve the use of AI-enhanced military technologies that they don't trust. And that's a serious problem.
thebulletin.org“As technology, including artificial intelligence, intertwines with the Gaza conflict, the promise of a tech utopia is tested against the stark reality of disinformation’s harmful consequences.”
"Narrative warfare: How disinformation shapes the Israeli-Hamas conflict—and millions of minds," by Yusuf Can, program coordinator for the Middle East Program at @thewilsoncenter.bsky.social.
Narrative warfare: How disinformation shapes the Israeli-Hamas conflict—and millions of minds
In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, disinformation emerges as a potent weapon skillfully wielded by those with ill intentions.
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