Matt Weiner
@mattweiner19.bsky.social
there may be a bit of "creative types draw inspiration from their emotional reactions to things and it is a mistake to think that that makes their work about those things"
(see also the Cat Person kerfuffle)
this article quotes him as drawing more parallels in a podcast
I no more listen to podcasts than I play AAA games, so that will remain a dispatch from an undiscovered country for me
www.vice.com/en/article/b...
The Not So Hidden Israeli Politics of 'The Last of Us Part II'
'The Last of Us Part II' presents what at first seems like an evenhanded point of view, but perpetuates the very cycles of violence it's supposedly so troubled by.
www.vice.com
Druckmann said that some of the emotions trace back to his reactions to footage of the 2000 lynching of two Israeli soldiers in the West Bank
www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/202...
Naughty Dog dives deep into the story beats and twists of ‘The Last of Us Part II’
The creators discuss Ellie’s transformation from a wide-eyed girl to a woman fueled by vengeance.
www.washingtonpost.comthe novelty food department at the Pirates' stadium needs to start working on some Flamin' Hot Potato Skenes
wait and then this is the case where Saudi Arabia helped the perp flee the country?
now I don't believe that the final result will look one tiny bit like this poll, and also Montana was more than 13 points right of Arizona in 2020
(though Texas wasn't)
(Florida neither, but the same poll has Scott up 8)
(possible that Arizonans are just real sick of Kari Lake)
honestly polls are compatible with a real fatty blue wave in the Senate
like if Tester and Brown can keep it within 13 points of the margin in Arizona, I have a poll showing Dems keeping the Senate
www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-b...
CBS News poll: Abortion access finds wide support, but inflation and immigration concerns boost Trump in Arizona and Florida
Is the issue of abortion offsetting the drag on President Biden stemming from inflation nationally and immigration in a state like Arizona?
www.cbsnews.com
yeah, but if Democrats' road to the White House runs through Alaska we likely have problems
(or idk! maybe the Peltola-ing signifies further movement in the future)
I believe that New Hampshire's trifecta depends on which state reps are in town that day, and Alaska's state lege coalitions are pure chaos
I think you're effectively right about 250's, if you count states with a D gov and veto-proof R majorities in the legislature. Dark colors are trifectas (222 R), pale veto-proof non-trifectas (30 R)
www.270towin.com/maps/dkQld
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com
So when they say their study "does not support the claims that GR is necessary in order to prevent suicide," that may be technically, in the same way that the fact that I have a cute gray tabby cat does not support those claims. It doesn't tell us anything meaningful about those claims.
...the 80% increase is "not statistically significant," which means that there's a possibility that it happened through random chance.
As @gidmk.bsky.social points out, the reason such a large increase is not statistically significant is *their study is too small to tell us anything*.
another point I'd make is that even with this screen, they found 80% greater suicide mortality among trans kids, and even so said "Clinical gender dysphoria does not appear to be predictive of... suicide mortality when psychiatric treatment history is accounted for."
There's a reason, but...
well that is close to what I understand @gidmk.bsky.social's critique to be! I am not an expert.
they definitely didn't quite partition it into "suicidal/not suicidal," but used a measure (psychiatric appointments) that you would expect to correlate with suicidality, which has a similar effect
that guy is over 40, he experienced the 2008 economy
he just chooses to believe this is worse
I thought he was confused but he's actually like "I don't want the lines on the right to keep going up" and that's far worse
tried to see if this will work
here's the OR Supreme Court decision
looks like she got a conditional commutation, violated terms in May '21, did a month for that, got a certificate that she was free from supervision in Feb '23, and in Dec. '23 Kotek tried to revoke the commutation
law.justia.com/cases/oregon...
Brown v. Kotek
The plaintiff, Terri Lee Brown, was incarcerated due to an order from Governor Tina Kotek that revoked a previous conditional commutation of one of Brown's sentences. Brown had received the commutatio...
law.justia.com
whether or not she was associated with a guy with a swastika tattoo, it seems like she was still illegally imprisoned
tbc and as you know I am against swastika tattoos
I guess younger adults rather than kids, the median age is 19
(and also I guess they also effectively filter people without severe psychological distress into another bin, but that has the same problem)
(also has Health Nerd says, the study just isn't robust enough to show much)
yes it's intended to support health care for trans kids. it's not even "one day without treatment," it's that they effectively *separately filtered the cis and trans populations for severe psychological distress* and found the suicide rates were the same. but more trans kids are in distress
and the guy in the wal mart was had picked up the toy gun in the store to buy it. like how can a product both be legal for purchase and also be something that attempting to purchase is a threatening act for which you can be killed?
(this is a rhetorical question, I know he was swatted by a racist)
ha ha I got very garden-pathed, read the first eight words and was like "they used to do what?"
also when I say "helped send it to Cannon" I just mean that it's my understanding that the judge was at some point a random draw, so if there had been more non-Cannon judges in the district the odds of getting Cannon would've been lower
urgh, I am relying on some vaguely-remembered post, but I also think that most district courts don't do things the way Texas does where a case filed in Amarillo is always heard by Kacsmaryk?
this story says "Trump is set to be arraigned in federal court in Miami."
abcnews.go.com/US/donald-tr...
Donald Trump indicted for 2nd time, in classified documents investigation: Sources
Trump has been indicted for a second time, in connection with an investigation of his handling of classified information while out of office, sources confirm to ABC News.
abcnews.go.comJFC, Rich, democracy is not an on/off thing. "police brutalize whoever they want to and are outside the control of elected officials" is very bad, "the National Guard deports 15-20 million people including anyone who supports Palestinians" is worse. ntm "violent coup to overthrow election."
it'd be one thing if the blue slip was part of a process where judges in general were drawn from a pool that was broadly acceptable to both parties, but that is very much not the case
*and* we should be trying to make progress toward abolishing the blue slip for district courts
southern Florida district court seats staying vacant for years helped send the Mar-A-Lago trial to Aileen Cannon
the deal moves in the wrong direction on that *and* court-packing
I'm basically with Eric though, it probably doesn't matter to Republicans that much if they can't pack more circuits, not to mention that if they win the trifecta democracy is turbofucked; but it makes more of a difference if Democrats can make progress on the worst circuits
I should say that I think it is *extremely* unlikely that Peter Welch and Becca Balint drop by the philosophy department commencement ceremony
(though I am a little surprised that UVM doesn't have some kind of prize dedicated to Welch's first wife, a CAS dean who died in 2004)
Joan Smith, UVM dean, dies at 70
HARTLAND Joan Smith, a University of Vermont dean and advocate for women's issues, has died at 70 after a long struggle with cancer. UVM officials said Saturday that Smith
www.rutlandherald.comyeah I think Moreno was probably the Republicans' weakest candidate. remains to be seen whether he's weak enough
that reminds me, I was right next to Patrick Leahy today (UVM Leahy Honors College ceremony) after being right next to Bernie Sanders yesterday (union rally)! If Peter Welch and Becca Balint drop by the philosophy department commencement gathering tomorrow I will have the Vermont congressional EGOT
I think I disagree with the calculus--even if we're more likely than not to lose the Senate, I suspect the upside of a D Senate free from blue slips is greater than the downside of an R Senate free from blue slips
also I don't think Rs would stick to it--see under "Durbin is a chump"
yes, but I'm looking for a term that isn't just about Israeli rightwingers. like people who think Israel should withdraw to within the green line and jointly administer East Jerusalem aren't just opposed to the Israeli right wing. And that's not even anti-Zionist!
my consolation on this (both ways) is that this may be indicative of Durbin being a chump
the downside of this consolation is that, even if we win, Durbin is still a chump
not the bad kind
(that is, I think it's not unlikely that even in the event of a Biden W, the swingy senate candidates run ahead of him)
yeah I think these are the only general election polls I've seen? and the second didn't poll Brown v. Moreno?
would somewhat discount GE polls taken during contested primaries, but Brown starting from 47 in the FAU poll isn't terrible
some copium: just before the 2022 elections suddenly everyone (well connected poll analyst types!) was tweeting about how all the Democratic insiders were telling them that it would be a complete wipeout
These are not rhetorical questions, I don't know what a good term is, and I think the vocabulary on both sides is not helping!
It's fraught partly b/c "the existence of Israel" can be as slippery as "Zionist." There are people who support a one-state solution with no special status for Jews, because they think a two-state solution has become unworkable. Are they opposed to the existence of Israel? What are they opposed to?
in the Josh Marshall piece I linked before, Gallant is not a Kahanist. An anti-Kahanist, even. Marshall says of him "This is not a guy who wants a Palestinian state" and there are certainly people who will be opposed to that position. What term should they use?
talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/benny...
Benny Gantz is a Follower, Lacks Moral Courage
Let me add a few thoughts on the issues we were discussing...
talkingpointsmemo.com
I would agree about "Kahanist," but for the same reason I think this does not capture what the people who oppose "Zionism" want to say
grant me for now that there are people whose criticism of "Zionism" is in good faith (there are also those for whom it's a cover for antisemitism)