Big numbers start getting hard to really properly visualise, but for reference, the numbers here correspond to deporting about 5% of all people in the United States. 1 in 20 people. It's numbers just slightly shy of the population of Florida, or a bit bigger than the population of the Portugal
The way these assholes have normalized Trump's insane fascism is infuriating. It's like reading "Stalin explains his plan to starve all Ukrainians" as if it were just a routine policy.
Or around 25-30% of the population of the United Kingdom.
It's total insanity.
It'll start with deporting, then they'll decide it's much easier to just throw all the undesirables down a mineshaft.
Yeah, almost immediately, because absolutely NO ONE is going to take *15 million* deportees. They're gonna get crammed into border camps and suddenly we're going to start hearing how we need some kind of "solution" to the problem.
Yeah, it’s very easy to see how this goes from “illegals” to “birthright citizens who aren’t real citizens anyway” to vocal critics (“enemies of America”) to anyone not showing sufficient loyalty
yeah, and absolutely what's going to happen is that Border Patrol is going to *start* from a wild over-estimate -- "35 million ILLEGALS in AMERICA" -- then when they can only find fifteen thousand or however many, they're going to start saying "We know they're here, they must be in disguise"
so since we "know" that there are more ILLEGALS, and we "know" that they're in disguise, this rapidly moves from "locking up people who we know are here illegally" to "locking up anyone who can't *immediately prove they're here legally*"
and then, of course, the GOP is going to have to complain that we still aren't deporting enough people faster -- "oh, there are still problems? Do things suck ass? It's because there are still too many ILLEGALS! Let's raise the threshold for proof of legality so we can get more deportations"
That’s the eventual plan. They’re already saying it
the book millions billions trillions is pretty good at teaching how to conceptualize big numbers
I really don't even understand this number, isn't the number of immigrants present without visa authorization something like 10-12 million? so how do these maniacs get to 15-20 million?
The number of people they'd like to deport/eliminate is way higher than either number.
right, I get that the Trump folks are pretty unhinged from reality. I really am just curious at the process - the particular method of unhinging, I guess - here.
I would guess that they intend to revoke refugee/asylum status and anything similar, which would probably get you a few more million.
that makes sense as a source for the additional several million, and is particularly brutal and horrific (as the UK asylum mess is proving). Revoking asylum has the potential to create stateless or near-stateless individuals, an even worse outcome than a harsh policy on visa-unauthorized persons.
Also UN wouldn’t be wrong to withdraw its HQ from the damn woke NYC.
Also UN wouldn’t be wrong to withdraw its HQ from the half-empty NYC.
I would imagine that the UN is on Trump's list of organisations to pull the US out of.
My guess is they’ll decide to take away citizenship by birthright (they’ve made general noises in that direction before, whining about “anchor babies” or whatever)
And then maybe they’ll extend that a few generations back: “We decree that your great great grandfather was illegal!! Out you all go!”
The 14th Amendment's citizenship clause is a v difficult barrier to get around. Even this Supreme Court, debased as it is, probably couldn't/wouldn't eliminate birthright citizenship. You'd likely have to replace Roberts w someone like Judge Ho and probably replace Gorsuch too to get that outcome.
That doesn’t stop them from making loud ugly noises about it.
And if they ever get enough control, existing laws and judicial systems and government structure won’t matter anyway 🙃
oh yeah I agree. And the ugly noises serve the cruel purpose of dissuading people. Still, some laws, structure, and guidelines will be easier to trash and disfigure and ignore than others. The 14th Amendment's citizenship clause will be one of the harder American principles for them to vandalize.
I kind of assume the plan is to not care what the Supreme Court thinks
I agree but that's quite the plan, even compared to some of the future Trump administrations other maniacal ambitions.
Getting the judiciary properly under control is job one for any aspiring authoritarian.
yes, absolutely - just look at Hungary and Poland! I certainly hope that our judiciary is a little more resistant to total transformation because of its constitutional structure, but one can never be sure or even optimistic these days.
Yes, but even a botched half-ass attempt at their current authoritarian plans will cause more than enough trouble and chaos for everyone (much like last time, but with even more extra chaos.)
And their stated plan IS total authoritarianism. Even a partial implementation of that is Bad News.
entirely agree! Not minimizing the danger or problems, and there are many, just trying to differentiate and discriminate among the many different and terrible dangers and problems posed by an authoritarian/illiberal political party being in power.
If these wackos get the car keys back, birthright citizenship will be gone, so all the anchor babies will have to leave with their parents.
It's one person in every one of your kids' classrooms. It's one family on every one of your suburban streets.
It also doesn’t matter that they almost certainly won’t be able to actually DO this; the violence and chaos is the real goal, here.
But I can see the Times publish Very Serious Analysis about how only deporting a million people more is playing in the swing states
It's always a bit tempting to see the sheer vastness of their evil as a sign that perhaps it will be impossible or is just rhetoric. But it's not. And it's not impt whether they succeed; it's impt that they intend to try it, and at those sorts of scales.
What if they “only” deport 2 million
Right. Like ... there are some pretty famous atrocities where the ambition was larger than the result, but the result was still pretty fucking big and evil
Look, Hitler didn't actually manage to wipe out the Jews so ...
The Saroyan quote comes to mind: just try it, motherfucker, see if you can.
I'd prefer if people would stop trying, actually
Godwin's law and all that but when I read the description of generalplan ost in Bloodlands I realized that I had somehow managed to be very naive about the Nazis. Sure, they committed unprecedented atrocities but they were trying to do things that were somehow much worse.
Bloodlands is a book I had to put down multiple times to get through. You never really realize exactly evil it was until you realize the actual plans were even more fucked up than reality.
I haven't read that book, but I have seen the movie "Conspiracy", which is usetting enough.
I cried so many different times reading that book, and I had to phone a friend to read it with me in order to get through it.
"only" 2 million?
That's more than the population of Nebraska, Idaho, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Montana, Rhode Island, Delaware, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, DC, Vermont, or Wyoming.
Or another way, more than the population of the last 3 COMBINED.
Language, how do it work
If you don't comprehend a grammatically correct sentence, that's on you, not me.
what do you think the word "only" is doing, you illiterate twit
Hmmm. I admit to being curious.
Why do you think he included scare quotes around "only"?
Could be a couple reasons. Could be that he sees it as actually only, and that's being used to denote that, or could be an ironic use of them.
And neither actually diminishes my point. Either I'm offering a counterpoint in the first instance, or a reinforcement in the second.
Or you’re jumping into a conversation literally everybody else understood, misunderstanding the tone and context, and trying to but akshually your misunderstanding into reality.
Apparently they blocked me, or I blocked them, and it seems nothing of value was lost.
I blocked them. I appear to have misunderstood what they mean by "only" two million, and so they decided to be an asshole about it.
Just follow the bsky way of "Block and move on."
You also appear to have misunderstood who was the asshole here.
And muting the thread because even if you block someone and it breaks the thread chain, it still sends you notifications for some reason?
words they only ever have one meaning
Right! Success and failure is not going to be measured by how far they fall short of their goal; it’s going to be whether they are in a position to try or not.
Also the fact it can’t be done at that scale will give so much opportunity for corruption and selective enforcement
see also, family separation www.splcenter.org/news/2022/03...
Long before the Trump administration implemented its “zero tolerance” immigration enforcement policy in 2018, it was already separating children from their parents as part of a “pilot program”
www.splcenter.orgAlso, didn’t the Nazis start with a deportation plan for Jewish people until discovering it was infeasible and then switched to total genocide?
Yes, that's my understanding
I saw this posited in another thread (can’t remember who) but the threat of that selective enforcement might actually be the ideal scenario… to allow for a continued, but more corrupt abuse of that power. They need immigrant work, just want to dehumanize them more in the process.
I think this is exactly correct. But I also think they will carry out huge removals and likely kill people.
Everyone who’s frothed up about Millions Of Immigrants has mysteriously forgotten all the rich-ass Employers who couldn’t POSSIBLY be charged with crimes for knowingly violating immigration law.
Oh 100%… I mean the threats need to be real after all, and, as we know, the cruelty IS the point.
As @pwnallthethings.bsky.social just noted, he tries to actually do all the crazy shit he comes up with, and then reality [infeasibility, opposition, incompetence] sets in. I think Big Business will find a way to make sure the work gets done while still letting Trump put on his little circus.
Worth also mentioning that the nazis originally planned to deport huge numbers of people, and then once they realized the logistics were insurmountable they turned to mass executions.
This. Thank you.
The Tories in the UK are trying to export undocumented people to Rwanda, so I no longer underestimate the sheer vastness of their evil. Trump would merely take a page and deport undocumented folks/brown people/Democrats to a worse place.
Right. And the immigration rhetoric in the UK (and Europe more broadly) means a lot of people die and pretty regularly, and there is a pretty broad and callous disregard for their welfare or lives whatsoever in politics; dehumanized into a status and a number of how many died in today's headline
not the worst part of course - but the part that might resonate with them - removing 5% of workers should be a great way to massively increase the cost of absolutely everything.
Removing/killing all the people that grow, harvest, and prepare your food traditionally has never had any problems for societies
But this wouldn’t be 5% distributed evenly or randomly. It would devastate, as in probably end, agriculture for example. Construction. If an industry collapses due to lack of labor, that’s not just “tomatoes are 10% higher.” Eg, NJ can’t harvest tomato/blueberry/mushroom crops anymore, at all.
Sounds like the kind of emergency that would warrant government intervention.
And look, we have a whole amendment that doesn’t actually abolish slavery. It just requires the government’s imprimatur for it to be legal…
When they say deport they mean gas chamber BTW. Bit of Slavic memory here.
But seriously they do mean gas chambers. There won’t be any deportation just extermination.
It reminds me of a typical Soviet tribunal sentence from the 1930th: "10 years without the right to correspond."
My grandpa at least sent one or two postcards from Auschwitz
Most people with such sentences were executed shortly after trials
At first I was like "slow down dude", but then I realised that they won't have anywhere to deport these millions of people to. Mexico, like the Soviet Union in the early 1940s, will refuse to accept the deportees. And we know what the Nazis decided to do next.
It's intended to have a chastening effect, shall we say, on a segment of the work force that's already pretty vulnerable and shrinks from contact with officialdom.
Sobering piece in Forbes today about bird flu turning up in Texas cattle workers. How bad? We don't know - they're avoiding testing.
People have forgotten that the USA has deported citizens before under Eisenhower.
We had internment camps during WWII as well.
What he’s planning *has been done*
He just wants to do more and bigger and all he needs is enough people to go along with it.
The idea that Trump has a plan is laughable.
The idea that people like Miller has one is not.
Trump's plan is to give Stephen Miller the job. Stephen Miller's plan is to put the country into a state of internally-directed total violence
My question is what happens once they've accomplished their "deportation" mission?
Do those detention camps and paramilitary apparatus just go away? No, they get repurposed for the next scapegoat, and then the next. And you never know who'll be next, that's how mobs work.
Also even in his first term, "Trump is disorganized and incompetent" was hugely oversold. Trump was disorganized in areas where he didn't give a shit: traditional governance, more or less.
Trump and the people around him _cared_ about immigration, and they hit the ground running.
I think most people do not grok the extent to which there has, for the last 50 years, been a parallel world of nativist policy wonks who have been drawing up and refining plans in anticipation of being able to finally implement them. They went quiet after Prop 187 tanked but they did not go _away_.
He entered office at noon January 20, 2017. He signed the Muslim Ban Executive Order (EO 13769) less than a week later.
Yup. Someone (probably Kobach) had the language of that one written up and ready to go months in advance; probably well ahead of Trump floating the idea during the campaign.
And _now_ they have a very different supreme court to contend with. They will get zero pushback from judicial.
The way I'd put that is that the *relevance* of his disorganization and incompetence was oversold: the Administration had a helluva time getting a lot of their agenda through the bureaucracy, legislature, and courts, but they also did a helluva lot of damage in their attempts.
Did it take the Administration three attempts to draft a Muslim ban that SCOTUS found past muster? Yes. Were countless people left stranded in airports, stranded abroad, taken into and/or released from custody, and left up in the air regarding their school or work status, etc.? Also yes.
I don't think Trump 2 will be as inept as Trump 1 was. But I also think it doesn't matter to the degree that the first Trump Administration totally fucked countless human lives while it flailed around and even an equally incompetent second Trump Administration would do no less harm.
I think we are mostly worried that it might do MORE harm this time.
A best case scenario (within the worst case of him being re-elected) is the same level of damage.
Agreed. And unfortunately I don't know how well we survive the same level of damage (if we're so lucky) on top of the harm and havoc he's already caused.
He doesn't need a plan. It's already been prepared for him (project 2025)
It would be horrific if they succeeded (and they might). And I wonder what they think will happen then. Is losing 5% of our workforce going to have a good result? 5% of our consumer base? 5% of our tax base (and yes, immigrants, both documented and un- pay a lot of taxes).
Even if this worked "perfectly" (as these people define perfect), this would have a terrible effect on the economy and industry, as well as being completely inhumane. Absolutely no one would come out of this well.
Perhaps this is the goal? The Trump supporters would look around and go, "hey, my life still sucks—in fact it sucks harder!" and decide it must be some other marginalized group's fault. And they'd rally around Trump as he promised to deal with whoever the new "them" was.
They truly want to do it and his supporters will claim these is just an exaggeration.
It would crash the economy and cause a huge recession with very high inflation.
I wish we could have "big numbers start getting hard to really properly visualize" put on a tag that everyone sees on any post with big numbers in it.
Maybe this is just my anxiety but the tone of the media lately reads like they think a Trump win is inevitable, more “when he gets in” than “if”
I think that's the idea they're trying to plant.
Lot of white people in care homes will also die if their nurses are evacuated to Madagascar. Apart from patients because doctors and nurses and EMTs. Who will pick the crops. Build the houses. And who will have children to become soldiers lawyers engineers programmers.
I kinda like the 1 in X stats for situations like this. "Pick one of your favorite 20 people" rarely stops the ding dong yelling at me but it does get everyone else's attention
Right. "Your classroom will lose a person", "Your church congregation will be *visibly* smaller" etc
I used to teach how to do this kind of round number estimation in debate class, for when you needed to quantify a harm.
Used to practice it with round numbers from the lamented Statistical Abstract:
"Big number", then "That's six pairs of socks, weekly, for the entire population of Maine!"
Ok, it sometimes got silly
Public policy Fermi problems. Also good for debunking outlandish claims. During Covid was useful arguing w/antivax
3 million died during covid, a period which the right views largely as a hoax designed to steal our freedoms.
Miller is functionally psychotic and a literal Nazi... and HE'S in charge of this plan. I'm pretty sure it won't stop at 5%.
I, and Bugs Bunny, support removing Florida.
Vile, but also I'm skeptical the people who were running the executive branch from 2016-2020 have the bureaucratic wherewithal.
The 1930s nazis didn't have the bureaucratic wherewithal to fully realize their ambition either, but it still fucking sucked
You're grossly naive about just how successful the Nazis actually were.
Is this a way of saying “I don’t expect this to affect me personally, so I’m not going to worry about it”?
Remember the Midwestern Trump supporter whose spouse was deported to Mexico after 20 years? Literally "I never thought they meant people like my husband." (He's still there, btw.)
No. How would you even arrive at such an interpretation?
Big time "I like waffles" "SO YOU HATE PANCAKES!!!!" energy on BlueSky.
Because it doesn’t matter if they have “bureaucratic wherewithal” because they have the ability to wreck millions of people’s lives and show every intention of doing so, given the chance.
“Oh it wasn’t so bad last time” is one of the most subtle, scary ways we’re sleepwalking into fascism. I don’t think people understand how much of 2016-2020 was about the adults in the room playing interference on Trump and Miller’s worst ideas. They’re determined not to let that happen again.
You did an excellent job of reading something that I didn't write.
My read of your comment was that the previous iteration of this admin was too incompetent or disorganized to pull this off.
My response was that what appeared like incompetence was actually a handful of responsible people stymying horrific ideas, and those people won’t be around this time.
"Skeptical" means something other than what you think it means, apparently, but more to the point, can you name a single institutional safeguard from 2019 that won't be there in 2025?
I don't think institutional safeguards are what staved off the worst outcomes in 2019. It was *people* in the administration who played interference. Trump and Miller have learned that lesson and are talking openly about their plans to stack their cabinet with loyalist true-believers.
Who, specifically, do you foresee Trump nominating to the cabinet who can overcome the various institutional safeguards that prevent cabinet members from doing whatever they want?
I’m not saying that he’ll nominate some brilliant cabinet level official who can overcome institutional safeguards.
I’m saying the institutional safeguards are already weak and ineffectual, and he’ll nominate loyal cabinet members willing to take advantage of that to advance his goals.
To be specific to this particular proposal, he’s talking about immigration enforcement, which is already in the president’s purview. If he wins it will be after running on this so he’ll have political capital for it. And the main roadblock is a court challenge which inevitably goes to SCOTUS.
I mean, this is the same SCOTUS that said no you can’t do a Muslim ban and then they scribbled over the word “Muslim” and John Roberts was like “yeah seems fine.”
"The Germans don't have the forces to advance to the Urals and occupy the whole USSR, so just how bad can this 'Generalplan Ost' really be?"
That might be a decent analogy if the German army were the worst land force of the modern era.
you know they are refining their plan, right? they know where their faults were and are 'fixing' them
You think the team behind Four Seasons Landscaping and every one of its lawyers facing disciplinary actions is *refining their plan*? What plan and how?
you realize those folks are not on the current roster?
Who is who gives you heartburn?
the people pulling the levers behind the scenes of which there are many. trump and his high profile buffoons are just the public face. it is what goes on in the background
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project...
Lol, that is the funniest thing I have read today.
Stalin’s purges sent, according to different sources, between 1.3M and 3.8M political prisoners to GULAG. Total population of the USSR was 170M according to the 1939 census. The system could not maintain the flow at the peak in 1937 - think overcrowded barracks, malnutrition, excess mortality.
Solzhenitsyn made it sound like GULAG swelled to 10M prisoners. Archival research does not support that.
Also the GULAG system was that of free labor, from timber to uranium mining for the atomic bomb, while deportations will be a vast expense with negative return: the U.S. labor force will contract by nearly that number of people. The country will be thrown into economic turmoil with nobody to hire.
Howard Dean screamed "yeah" too vigorously and stopped his campaign. DT says outright fascist shit every day and keeps going. We live in the dumbest & darkest timeline.
To this day I'm flabbergasted by how the press just utterly destroyed Howard Dean over something that ridiculous. A bunch of high school bullies with a mob mentality just deciding "let's bash a Democrat", ffs.
I was there, on the ground in New Hampshire. The saying “dated Dean, married Kerry” was a real thing. The Scream made for catchy TV, but something had changed in the previous week. The Powers That Be said “that’s enough of this populist nonsense, now the party establishment is in charge.”
now don't tell me that the idea of deporting most of Florida doesn't hold a certain intuitive appeal
They’ll be deporting the wrong ones.
Not at all, they’ll be deporting the wrong Floridians.
These kinds of atrocities need to be brought down to the personal, to the impact on individual lives. How will it affect you, a voter? How will it destroy the lives of people with whom you're close? How will it destroy your community, your economy? Letting them go as crazy-talk is intolerable.
Obviously these Miller specials are primarily cruel against human lives, those who'd be subject to this fascism. But voters need to see how insane they are for their own interests, too.
Right. Important to understand that for the 5% directly targeted, it will be particularly grim and terrible, and we should be careful about de-centering them from the harm primarily directed at them, but also ... you can't deport 5% of the country without it directly affecting the other 95%
Like the basic infrastructure to do that kind of violence, even if that violence is primarily aimed at the 5%, will also mean that none of the other 95% will be living in a free society either
I keep saying this: how many people carry proof of citizenship with them at all times?
Yes, if someone aims to hit those numbers then all due process is going to go out of the window, and the false positive rate is going to be ludicrously high, as well as the actual brutality rate.
For context, roughly 1% of the 1692 population of Salem Town and Salem Village were executed as witches.
About 52% of US adults have RealID drivers licenses.
A few people carry passport cards.
So, including people too young for licenses or non-driver IDs, maybe 35% have something they could carry?
I will keep beating this drum, because a lot of people believe it: RealID is not proof of citizenship, merely of *currently* lawful presence.
The states involved all have kept the documentation as to which documents you used to get the Real ID.
If they so desire, they can make a citizenship determination based on them and have that data available for cops when they scan your license (demand to see your papers).
I'm not at all confident that a regime aiming to deport 5% of the population will be diligent in setting up timely, accurate procedures that will avoid police making a "mistake" (for any value of "mistake").
I mean, they may, but it is not how I would bet.
Pretty sure that they will be using the skin tone determination of citizenship in practice well before they mandate it into law.
RealID doesn't count, unfortunately. It's probably 1/6 that have something. And that's my high-ball gut estimate.
Thanks to Real ID laws, a lot of us. Sadly.
I will keep beating this drum, because a lot of people believe it: RealID is not proof of citizenship, merely of *currently* lawful presence.
I kept thinking throughout all the Obama stuff in 2017: I have no idea where my birth certificate is.
and when they get rid of birthright citizenship ... that might not even be enough. Do you know where your parent's birth certificates are? Their parents'? And even if you can, can you do it on the bus to the detention center while they've confiscated your phone?
and when they get rid of birthright citizenship ... that might not even be enough. Do you know where your parents' birth certificates are? Their parents'? And even if you can, can you do it on the bus to the detention center while they've confiscated your phone?
Right and it’s not going to MATTER because the point is not to cleanse the blood the goal is to license petit Goebbels to do violence
I am a white upper middle class man. Won't get around to me til 2026 or 2027.
Me too. Which is why it's never mattered to me where my birth certificate is.
I need a certified copy every time I get a new job and needed it when I had to get my Real ID Drivers license.
So, I-9 compliance has been one of the things I've done. If any employer has ever told you that you *need* your birth cert, as opposed to it being one of several documents you can use to prove ability to work here, then they've broken the law.
Can't get something from group A without having used something from Group C in the past. I-9 makes citizenship status pretty obvious, sadly.
Social Security card and Birth Certificate with seal are the easiest for me, I have needed them for additional work related applications as well.
I reek with the privilege of being a very late round deportation. Frankly, if they send me back to Ireland (who does not want me) I would count it as a win.
I bet people with foreign accents and names like "Melania" are terrified of a second Trump term.
If Trump wins I am expecting to die in street violence.
My mom, who never once had her citizenship questioned during her life, was born in what was then the Belgian Congo to 1 American and 1 Swede. Her birth cert was handwritten and issued by a government that had not existed in my lifetime.
That cert may or may not be in the possession of my brother, with whom I have not spoken since mom's funeral.
All I have is a consular report of birth abroad. They’re definitely putting me and mine on the cattle cars
My dad was born in an era and a state where birth certificates weren't required. He got a "delayed" one based on school records when he joined the army. I'm sure they'd find a way to make that not good enough.
Do you have a foreign sounding name?!
No, and that's the point of all this. If the problems were at our northern border I'm pretty sure Republicans would be complaining that Biden's lazy immigration department wasn't processing temporary work visas fast enough.
My wife and I are US citizens and it’s a major hassle for us to renew our children’s US passports because they were born abroad. Let me repeat - it can be difficult to prove citizenship of a kid WHO ALREADY HAS A $&%ing US PASSPORT.
Years ago when I started down the highly addictive path that is genealogical research, I had no idea that it might be helpful at keeping me out of a deportation center.
PBS can turn "Finding Your Roots" into a high stakes game show. At the end of every episode Dr. Gates can say, "Do you get to remain in the country? Turn the page."
It can also be “do you get to leave the country” as in are you eligible for citizenship in other countries. A lot of people are all of a sudden trying to figure out if that Canadian grandma means they have an escape hatch.
Ireland has a (limited) right of return.
Yes, if you have a grandparent born on the island of Ireland you can become an Irish citizen. If you do it before you have kids, they can become citizens. I’m grateful for my Grandpa Mike’s Irish birth and that I became a citizen before my kids were born.
I mean, I’m lucky. My grandmother had the paperwork to prove she was a Daughter of the American Revolution. But I’m the only person I know who has that stuff at hand…
Oh, hey, you too?
My aunt gave me an entire BINDER of photocopied genealogy and stuff.
If they want to get rid of me, they will toss it in the trash and it won’t even matter.
I doubt they’d bother. If they want to get rid of us, they’ll go after the families of our spouses or our parents without such thorough documentation.
It’s not like the threat of deporting someone’s spouse and children doesn’t give them tremendous leverage. 1/
That way, they don’t damage the optics for their own supporters. “Obviously, Mr. Neville is a US citizen. Unfortunately, he could not provide documentation to prove that his wife and children are also citizens. So he has elected to join them in deportation.” 2/2
P.S. I’d wager our binders are laid out similarly.
Well, the documentation required for membership was what our grandmothers were aiming for, so, probably.
If they want you gone, will a piece of paper stop them?
Eisenhower deported citizens. How many made it back? Does anyone know?
It's only required for the brown people.
Point of order - This already happens. There have been multiple instances of the DHS trying to deport an actual citizen born in the US. So imagine how bad it would be under a true authoritarian that gives no shits
None. Because valid proof is anything the authorities have decided is valid and is proof, and if they can (even just de facto) determine that on the fly, or decide in advance that nothing a specific person presents will qualify …
Like, even if you do have your birth certificate on your person for some reason, can you prove it's real? Can you prove it's yours? Can you do this without using any document that doesn't ultimately derive its legitimacy from that of your birth certificate?
And that's assuming you're even nominally entitled to due process at all
I shudder to think what % would care even then until it personally affected them. (I’m against them coming for anyone just on principle.)
It's hard for folks to comprehend in advance what it will look like or how it will affect them personally, and the difficulty is trying to help folks see how it will affect them intolerably, and that it's not hyperbole that *even* if you are a citizen, this will *also* intolerably suck for you
What I was suggesting is it still won’t really materially affect most people even once we’re fully in it and they still won’t care. Until it does.
Wasn’t a civil war that stopped the nazis
Guess you can say soviet union was eventually undone by it but took decades and the counter-balancing superpower
(Sorry, know you and everyone know this)
I think Pwn’s point is there’s no way it won’t immediately materially affect almost everyone, because something like this would entail feds/troops raiding entire urban neighborhoods & towns, likely without local police coordination. There’d be no way to steer clear, and the violence would spill over
I can’t even watch the recent documentary yet because I’m already so sad, but I think that’s what it was about, people being able to ignore even when literally on doorstep until knock for them comes.
I can’t even watch that recent movie yet because I’m already so sad, but I think that’s what it was about, people being able to ignore even when literally on doorstep until knock for them comes.
If we’ve learned anything recently, it’s that we can just peacefully protest the mass deportation and they will totally listen and stop doing the bad thing.
Spoiler: they’ll just deport your ass too
The radical phase of the French Revolution is the historic model. When you start the machinery of state violence and arrests, you cannot shut it off.
People need to understand it would be back to summer 2020 level chaos overnight, without stopping, and would be everywhere, not just downtown squares. Jan 6 level chaos in every suburb.
By the time that actually impinges on their lives, it'll be fearsomely difficult to affect matters.
(Thinking on stories of communities coming together, not always succeeding in preventing one single deportation of a student, for instance.)
Quick math shows that if just 1% of the 5%, somehow are misidentified as illegal, that’s ~160k people, citizens, who will be affected.
If the mass deportation goes forward, the US will lose allies, businesses, and suffer massive civil unrest.
An all-time shitshow.
People really struggle to think what life is like in circumstances that are massively materially different to our own experiences, and so folks struggle to see how bad life can get, or how quickly, if the wheels of society really do come off
ppl also struggle to see it's already work in progress happening, when those it's happening *to* aren't themselves/like themselves (yet)
US would take a financial hit that would tank the stock market, jack up the unemployment rate, and create an absolute necessity of cutting social security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Sounds like a Steve Bannon plan
For reference, that's more than the number of people who were intentionally shipped off to internment camps in WWII being mass-deported, accidentally.
and it won't be a directed professional affair. ICE/DHS will just show up somewhere, arrest everyone and declare all of them illegals.
Not sure that getting to shipped to Ecuador isn't the better deal than living under the White Reich for 20-50 years.
I think we came pretty close to having armed neighborhood groups in San Diego to resist deportation sweeps last time. The willingness of blue cities and states to push back was enough to disrupt the dynamic. This time I don’t know.
I dont understand why these threats are not reported in terms of the chaos on the Economy as well (both for staffing & paying customers) Even hateful bigots probably dont want every restaurant and grocery in town to close, right? Like, I get they dont get nuance (or the point of society..) but still
Right, it's not like there's an existing infrastructure for figuring out who's getting deported. EVERYONE is going to be at risk. Everyone is going to have to have "papers", whatever those will be. It's not even a hypothetical, it fucking happens in every one of these! Don't like Bob? He's gone.
I had a conversation with a co-worker pre-COVID, where he suggested immigrants should be required to carry ID at all times
Me: So you're OK with being arrested for not having ID on you?
Him: No, it would just apply to immigrants
Me: How do the cops know that without an ID?
More liberals and leftists need to appreciate the importance of the capacity to do violence in getting and maintaining power!
Lasting harm will probably come to protesters, and it will be entirely too late to change anything. For voters, the time to protest that future is this November.
I'd suspect that attempting to round up and deport 5% of the population would be a prelude to civil war.
Exactly. Once mass arrests start, they don't stop.
Out of vanity my grandmother fibbed about her age when she immigrated in the 1940s. Can see that making all of her descendants illegals under his next administration.
for sure. my comment is mainly focused on the period between now and november. what do voters need to understand about a second trump presidency? we need clarity about that so that voters have no illusions about what's next.
100% with you on this
My biggest concern lately is how Trump will use the laws that Biden’s party is in the process of passing to dismantle universities, schools, and nonprofits by legally designating them as antisemitic based on the fact that they don’t support the genocide that Biden is carrying out
you really think republicans would do that? just use the infrastructure of fascism for fascism?
I’m less vulnerable than many, but I am concerned that a Trump administration will continue the current Dem/Biden policy that considers me to be the equivalent of a Nazi, both legally and rhetorically
do you care what happens to palestinians or not. bc 6 months from now is not saving ppl being killed by us supplied weapons. who gave you a scholarship. what a waste
They don’t.
They “care”, but they don’t care.
Hope you have a good day, comrade!
I am concerned that between now and November democrats on the local and national level will continue to endorse the false concept of a border/migration “crisis” and thus accepting the basic rhetorical underpinnings of a Trump admin mass deportation program
Change the president and reps opinions on issues or drown with us all into Trump.
You libs better get to work protesting these people in power or you’re cooked.
Better get some backbone. Policing with voters with fear scenarios won’t work.
Libs : “It’s not Biden’s fault!
He can’t do anything.
He has his hands tied.
What do you want him to do?
It’s not a genocide.
It’s not right wing nationalism.
It’s not fascism.
Israel - the only democracy.
Everyone’s Hamas.”
Libs : “If Trump was in it would be all his fault.”
It's weird how anyone thinks the voters Biden has lost don't already understand any of this
If Biden wants those votes back, he's going to have to do something about it
So far that's not looking too good
They assume that anyone who does understand must by definition agree with them. Dissent can only be the product of either ignorance or malice.
They're overlooking the reason why votes have been lost
They brush that aside to their own detriment
If they really want Biden to win they're going to need to make a stand
Why would you assume that ignorance is the only issue here?
You’re just running interference for the US administration that is currently supporting a genocide
The worse Biden acts, the more you have to crank up the come about Trump
I am also seeing it that the number 15-20M is 1.5-2x higher than the estimated total number of undocumented immigrants (who he says he wants to deport) in the US. What do you wanna bet that, if he tells his people to come up with 15-20m of undocumented immigrants to round up, they will even if the
real number is 10. (Not that deporting the 10m is in any way right or normal, just pointing out that it'll be even worse than he says it will.)
Like, I don't want to minimize how inhumane Trump's policies are, but I feel like someone should be pointing out to the rich folks that deporting 5% of the US population is going to drive vacancy rates up and rents and property values down and surely the psychopaths at Blackrock wouldn't want that?
I no longer have any faith in the idea that "these policies will cause real harm to all Americans" can move the dial, but telling rich folks it will cost them money might.
a whole lot of people going to be big mad Burger King closing at 5pm
Aside from the fact that there is zero chance that everyone they deport is an undocumented immigrant. Skin too brown? Annoy your neighbor or landlord too much? Can't find your social security card? You just might be on the next bus.
Yeah, that’s one of my things. Try getting your due process amid the system flooded with this
Like, for instance, even if you're not exactly human, the people who clean your house and get paid off the books won't be available any more.
I’m thinking of that illegal guy that owned that beloved restaurant and then got deported & separated from his family & all the neighborhood white people were like “oh my that’s terrible” & year later it was a white lady owning the place and “oh the old guy? We don’t really think about him anymore”
The problem is rural white people think that they will benefit from this.
So key! The more specific we get the better.
He is basically outlining starting a war with Mexico.
I mean, he's also very directly talking about starting a war with Mexico, so... in for a penny, I guess
Yup. Can't have a war without multiple reasons, even if they're all ridiculous reasons
I feel like, even as a heartless republican who doesn't care about the insane human suffering this would create, you'd have to understand this would almost instantaneously destroy the American economy
It’d mean ICE patrolling every neighborhood in the country, asking for people’s papers.
A vast amount of our country is within 100 miles of a border or coast, at which point the law gets WEIRD. It’s just that no president has been insane enough to stretch that to its full possibilities yet. But “border checkpoints” are legal anywhere w/i that 100 miles, & ICE patrols are a small step
Yup. 2/3 of the US population.
Thanks, I couldn’t recall the exact amount, but I knew it was huge
Wouldn't it be easier if we did just deport the population of Florida? I mean, we know where they are, to start with.
One the mass arrests begin, they will take on a terrible logic of their own and seek new targets to feed the carceral machine.
This is Committee of Public Safety stuff
Pick a couple midwest states and make them empty.
The Ukraine, the Portugal, the countries yknow
The neighborhood I live in has had a drastic change in demographics since I moved in 15 years ago.
There has been an influx of immigrants from Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) over that time, and I shudder to think what would happen around here if Trump had his way.
And not just here around me, but along Eastern Ave into Greektown and Highlandtown. Those neighborhoods would be devastated.
If these clowns think worker shortages and inflation are bad now, just wait.
I agree with everything- but I also suspect that it’s red meat for the rubes to get Trump back in. Then the meatpackers, the Farm Bureau, construction, restaurant & hospitality orgs will have their people make some calls, & these plans will go away, just like taxes & regs on these same industries.
The Stephen Millers have realized that there is a SIGNIFICANT audience out there that gets off on the spectacle of state violence against whiny kids, gays, uppity women, ungrateful minorities and immigrants, etc. These messages are moving the Overton window so that they can deliver as needed.
I don't think they will actually fuck their real masters in corporate america by getting rid of cheap exploitable labor at scale.
But the messaging itself is despicable, because moving that window results in an increase in the background level of danger experienced by members of those groups. And eventually, the rubes will demand more and more violence.
at $10000/person (estimate of per-person cost), deporting 15 million would cost $150B. (and you KNOW damned well with all the middlemen and grifters taking their cut, it'll be more like $100K/person).
But we can't get health care. Or affordable housing.🤷
Its happening with extreme right parties everywhere. The UK deporting migrants to Rwanda, The AFD in Germany with remigration rhetoric. They ignored climate change for yrs but it's obvious now. It will cause mass migration globally. The conservatives fear that more than the actual climate change.
The career criminal, his convicted felon father-in-law, and his ass kissing, addicted demon spawn family are at the top of the deportation list
OTOH Trump said he'd have a healthcare plan.
Los Angeles county has 9.7 million people in it so basically two LA counties or more than two New York Cities.
Also, these people disproportionately work in the food industry. What do you think will happen when all those people are gone?
This will bring famine to the US.
I'm sorry, how is this guy not in jail
how is this guy running as president, how is this guy have a not insignificant chance of *winning* the election
any introspection anyone? or is that too far?
I'm not surprised by such a naive statement from Trump himself. What worries me most is that people hear him babble about eleventy bazillion immigrants and still will consider what he has to say thereafter.
“Have you seen The Leftovers? It’ll be worse than that.”
He started a de-naturalization taskforce before he left office. He's not just talking about "undocumented" people, although that's bad enough.
Just wait til people start figuring out what that plan would do to prevailing wages
To me this drives home something important. The oppression and deprivation of marginalized populations in the United States harms as many people as the population of a small country. This deportation would equal the population of Estonia, for example.
Or more, if I'd gotten the math right;).
Now let's count how many women of color will die in childbirth and without abortion care, how many transgender youth will lose all support, and how many will be damaged by climate change under Trump. The numbers are enormous.
Whether or not this directly constitutes a genocide, it would certainly result in one coming about.
Who the bell is going to fill the 11 million jobs suddenly open? The economy will be crushed by this.
Fuck you, Donald!
Speaking of which, most of these people will be in countries like Florida or Texas right? So it’ll be more like 20% of Florida, plus 20% of Texas, etc. (I don’t know the numbers, this is my hand wavy guess).
So about this plan to deport Florida...
I'm in favor?
It would be pretty embarrassing if Trump managed to beat Portugal in getting rid of people. Portugal is quite adept at educating a bright workforce only to motivate them to move away.
This is also where I will gently note that the primary authors of #Project25 and #Agenda47 (namely, Christian Nationalists associated with Manifest Sons of God descended groups like the New Apostolic Reformation) DO have documented histories of genocide, which is where this would inevitably go
Firstly, at least one MSoG associated group (Colonia Dignidad) directly assisted Pinochet's democide in Chile in that their commune served as an "extraordinary rendition" facility for people who had been "disappeared"
And then there's the Mayan Genocide in Guatemala which THAT's a story in itself
(Efrain Rios Montt comes over after a massive earthquake in the early 70s, sets up a MSoG-descended "ministry", eventually ingratiates himself into military leadership, commits a coup in 1982...and over the next year has over 200,000 people, largely K'iche Maya, killed in a genocide...
and THIS got to be too much killing for even the junta so he got sacked, and then spent the next decade touring US MSoG-descendent Christian Nationalist churches with Oliver North basically promoting Iran-Contra as "God's work" and the Maya Genocide as "spiritual warfare" made flesh.
THAT didn't end, as an aside, until families of nuns and priests ALSO killed in the genocide (and accused of being "Satanists and Communists") sued in Portugal & Spain and Interpol red notices were issued; Montt eventually was convicted of genocide in Guatemala, some 20-odd years after the fact)
It's also worth noting (for those wondering "Where the hell are they going to find 35 million illegal aliens?")...MSoG lineage Christian Nationalists have among themselves actively talked about genocide since Reagan was doing his first run for POTUS, so this has been in planning a LONG time
And as early as 2007, you DID have MSoG-lineage Christian Nationalists (they weren't quite calling themselves the New Apostolic Reformation *yet*) stating, on national TV, that they intended to strip non Christian Nationalists of citizenship and legally reclassify them as "illegal aliens".
@cnn.com literally aired this back in August 2007, and yes, literallly a major MSoG-lineage Christian Nationalist called for stripping people of citizenship, classifying them as illegals, and putting them in concentration camps www.dailykos.com/stories/2007...
Not even kidding.
CNN's groundbreaking series "God's Warriors"--in which promoters of Wahhabist Islam, Haredi Judaism, and "Christian" dominionism are revealed--has caused up quite the stir; dominionists in ...
www.dailykos.com
And that leader in turn had links to some extreme anti-LGBTQIA groups (recruiting among Russian emigre communities) linked to violence, and followed THAT up with a call of mandatory "degaying" and "detransing" and other stuff that's in #Project2025 now
www.dailykos.com/stories/2007...
In yesterday's post --which I refer to as "The Big List, California Edition"--I recommended that people specifically not give ...
www.dailykos.com
That's where they intend to find 35 million to "deport", or...more likely, just shoot in the head and throw in a ditch or an incinerator
(And honestly the first time I heard of this stuff was when I was in kindergarten IN a MSoG lineage group that sent buses to #J6. Still have nightmares, tbh)
And those big numbers will “accidentally” include US citizens, green card holders/permanent residents, people on student and tourist visas. Which will be then used to justify purifying America of the folks mistaken for undocumented entries/overstays and Muslims.
This takes us into death camp territory as the logistics of supplying food and medicine will become overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of internees. People will starve and die of disease as corrupt prison companies take shortcuts to maximize their profits. There is a nightmare brewing here.
What if we framed it as 20 million people equals X amount of consumer spending dollars sucked out of GDP, tanking quarterly corporate profit targets for the people who don’t care about humanitarian concerns?
This is a slow motion holomdor
It's about 16 to 18% of the population, (about, some reason it's hard to count homeless people!) where is he getting his numbers?
The United States is 4% of the world's population, meaning that 4% of all the people in the world are in the United States. However, 25% of all prisoners in the world are in the United States, meaning that we have 1/4 of all the locked up people in the world.
You see the numbers about white Evangelicals as a percentage of the population plummeting everywhere, but then in Tennessee it's still Like That & things start to make sense
It's also around the same rate as green eyes. and more than double that of the population of the united kingdom.
The House of Representatives seems to think the entire population of the United States is 435 people.
Guess who volunteered to make the ethics complaint against Kevin McCarthy?
Well apparently, as of 2020, it’s either 7.5 Million or 7.6 Million.
And that is… 2.4% of the total population of the United States!
…. I was kinda hoping for just a bit more.
The population of all of Saskatchewan is just slightly greatly than metropolitan Ottawa. I guess it's all in your frame of reference.
The numbers didn’t make sense at all. For what she had you’d probably need a population about the size of the Irish traveller population. 30-50,000. With one school you’d have a population of about 1000
Not in terms of absolute numbers but relative to their numbers in the population. Small Jewish population in Germany that’s disproportionately represented on the list of those sanctioned.
Economy aside, this is ~ the equivalent of rounding up the entire population of Portugal. Or arresting and deporting 1 in 30 people
Think folks need to think more carefully what something that big looks like, both in terms of the harm to those people, or what it even does to a country to attempt it
Seems like maybe it would be worth running some numbers to figure out how much it would cost the federal government to deport 11 million people, what the economic impact of taking ~8 million workers out of the economy would be, and then ask some Republican voters if they support such a thing.
And it’s supposed to house 25% of the country’s population.
Just, all bad ideas. All around.
just gonna add the equivalent of the entire population of the united states to our MAUs. no biggie
Fascism isn't going to fully assert itself in the United States by getting the support of 51% of the population.
All in all it’s another throw of the dice where the only numbers available are a 1 or maybe a 2.
In terms of single cohesive population demographics, I'd guess it's a plurality of the country (like 30% or so of total population).
Going serious for a moment- one of the big things we try to remind fosters of is keeping an eye on numbers. Animal hoarding isn’t just physical numbers. It’s about ability to care for and manage the population.
Years back I set a hard cap at 10 cats in the house, with 4/5 perm residents max 1/
Happy International Day of Persons with Disabilities!
Disabled people make up 15% of the population worldwide.
Disabled adults make up 27% of the population in the United States.
Disabled people die or are injured 2-4x more than nondisabled people.
#InternationalDisabilityDay
7% of Americans is roughly 23 million people. To put it in more concrete numbers, 23 million people is slightly more than four times the population of the Republic of Ireland.
Dude's talking about deporting the equivalent of the population of Ohio and everyone is just cool about it.
That is really interesting— it’s an incredibly steep drop in numbers and percentage of the population.
And a critical lack of understanding when it comes to scale. Paris was rioting (not all of France); and only a portion of the Parisians total. Paris has 1/8th the population of New York City. The United States has 4x the population of France.
🦘“The post would be viewed 1.3 million times, more than double the population of Baltimore.”
The population of Baltimore is actually only about 75 people. People think it’s higher, but it’s really just a small village.
“She thought it over, though, and decided that she could not rule out a kangaroo in West Baltimore.” www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/lo...
Could a baby kangaroo be living undetected in the alleys of Baltimore? Did someone’s exotic pet hop away? In this strange, surprising city, anything was possible.
www.thebaltimorebanner.com
Wow ~20% of <50% of the population. Such strong numbers! /s
What's the source?
